The Lowe Down

The talk over the past week has been all about the offer sheet Oilers GM Kevin Lowe sent to the Anaheim Duck’s RFA Dustin Penner. This is followed the talk of how the move is unethical, a low blow etc. which others counter with it is within the rules.

Here is my take. Yes, it is fully within the rights of the team to do it, but it is a bit of an underhanded move. Yes, they do have to give up compensation to the team, but it also is in a way stealing the way it is done. Regardless, Lowe operated within his rights so I am fine with what he has done. I don’t like that a GM can do this, but it is in the rules.

Burke of course responded with his normal outrage, calling the move “classless” due to it’s timing of Burke being away and an act of desperation. I don’t agree with Burke it was classless as again, Lowe operated well within the rules. But I agree with him it is an act of desperation on Lowe’s part. He was again unable to land the free agents he hoped in the summer market, and took his first shot at the sabers Thomas Vanek, which he lost out on. Next he took a shot at Penner, who we don’t know if the Ducks will match, but if they do will get a 1st, 2nd and 3rd pick as compensation. (Personally, I think the Ducks should take the picks).

When you look at it, Lowe calculated the move well. Anaheim sits at $48 of a $51 million cap, with Teemu Selanne still undecided. Scott Niedermayer may retire which would free up $6.5 million and make the Penner signing much easier. However, if Burke matches, he will be at $53 million which he must get under by end of training camp. If he does match, which I don’t think he will if Niedermayer comes back because Penner being worth $4.25 a year is questionable, I would look for hi to deal Todd Marchant away to free up $2.5 million.

The thing I really agree with Burke on is that the offer sheets are bad for the league. Twice now in a month Lowe has thrown money at young players who are not deserving of it, driving up market value. They may be worth it eventually, but not currently. (And we have to wonder why Lowe couldn’t give $5.5 to Ryan Smyth but can throw $7 at Vanek).

This also brings up another point. With these offer sheets you will being more of two things. First is the signing of RFA’s before July 1. Team’s will be more cautious now that with GM’s like Lowe throwing big offers to young players. Young players are becoming ever more valuable in the cap era, so expect more of what Pittsburgh has done with Crosby in signing deals before they can even get an offer. Second is arbitration. If you file for arbitration then an offer sheet cannot be submitted to an RFA. However, actually going to arbitration there is always the risk of the hearing going badly, but granted most teams settle before it goes there. But chances are the arbitration award, though almost always player friendly, will not be as much as what Lowe has been throwing out this summer.


To sum up, what Lowe did was fine, but because of the nature of the move it will always seem to be under handed. The greater implications though are with the driving up of salaries that the sheets cause.

-Jordan

Well it’s been a few days since the free agent frenzy has subsided, so let’s take a look at the big signings that have occurred. (This does not include signings of RFA's or contract extensions)



Anaheim
Mathieu Schneider, 2 years $11.5 million
This move is signifying to most that Scott Niedermayer is on his way to retirement. Schneider plays a similar game though is not quite as good defensively. At 37 he still has a good step.

Todd Bertuzzi, 2 years $8 million
Bertuzzi has reunited with Brian Burke in Anaheim where the two seemed to share a rather close relationship for a GM and player. $4 million guaranteed is a bit much after missing almost an entire season with a bad back, but if e can regain his form from Vancouver he will be well worth it.



Atlanta
Todd White, 4 years $9.5 million
White had a very good year for Minnesota and got himself a Selke nod. I think the contract is a bit much and long for a guy who’s been mediocre most his career, but 1) Atlanta needs defensive help even from the forward lines and 2) it’s Don Waddell

Ken Klee, 2 years unknown amount
This is what I don’t get about Wadell: every year the Thrashers need defense and every year he does nothing to address it. Not that Klee is nothing, but when you leg Greg DeVries walk it’s like lateral shift. Klee will help, but is no improvement over the guy he is replacing.

Slava Kozlov, 3 years $11 million
Well not a true UFA signing because Kozlov was expect back, it is noteworthy because after Drury, Briere and Gomez Kozlov was one of the more high profile centers available. He is over 35 so his contract will count against the cap unless dealt, but if he continues his recent scoring pace that wont be much of a problem.


Boston
none


Buffalo
Teppo Numminen, 1 year $2.6 million
Buffalo once again re-upped Numminen who has been a valuable member of their blue line. While the money may have been better spent being towards a younger defenseman, Numminen has been a key defender since joining the Sabres.

Jocelyn Thibault, 1 year unknown amount
Thibault bounced back from a terrible 2005-2006 season with the Penguins and finished strongly as Fleury’s back up. Regier is hoping he can continue to do that with Miller and provide goaltending depth in the playoffs (well, if they make it this year).

Calgary
Cory Sarich, 5 years $18.5 million
Sarich is exactly the kind of guy Sutter wants: big and powerful. He will fit perfectly into the Flames scheme. However, I think this is a bit much for him, but looking at what others have gotten it’s not that bad. Sarich should pay dividends for the Flames.

Owen Nolan, 1 year unknown amount
Nolan had a decent year with the Yotes, and he is Sutter’s kind of player. While I am a bit surprised at this move, a one year deal for Nolan’s secondary scoring, leadership and grit could prove rather valuable to the Flames.

Carolina
none

Chicago
Yanic Perrault, 1 year $1.5 million
Looking for help where they can, and cheap help with short contracts, Perrault has had two good years where he not only continues to be one of the best face off men, but has also provided secondary scoring. I don’t think this deal could hurt Chicago in any way.

Robert Lang, 2 years unknown amount
Lang is aging but still effective. He is decent in his own zone and can provide secondary scoring for the Hawks. But he is not a first line center though he will most likely be put there.

Colorado
Scott Hannan, 4 years $18.5 million
Starling to look like the steal of the defenseman. Hannan is a hard nosed defensive stalwart that any team should want. He will be a very valuable member of the Av’s back end and make them tough to play against. Very good signing.

Ryan Smyth, 5 years $31.25 million
Adding Smyth will give the Avalanche further grit, leadership and scoring, This will help to alleviate some of the pressure off of aging, but still highly effective captain Joe Sakic. Paired with the acquisition of Hannan, the Avs are going to be a lot tougher to play against in more ways that one.

Columbus
Jiri Novotny, 2 years unknown amount
While a good depth player, the Blue Jackets are going to need to do more to bolster their lineup that this.

Dallas
none

Detroit
Brian Rafalski, 5 years $30 million
With the loss of Schenider, Ken Holland immediately found his replacement in Brian Rafalski, who plays a similar style. I like Rafalski, but not $6 million like and neither should anyone else. Regardless, he will replace Schneider and be a valuable member on the blue line.

Dominic Hasek, 1 year $2 million plus incentives
To nobody’s surprised Hasek re-upped with the Wings at double his previous salary. After a strong year (which I of course predicted the opposite) the Red Wings will once again rest their goaltending hopes on him.

Edmonton
none

Florida
Richard Zednik 2 years $3.25 million
Brett McLean 3 years, $5.1 million contract
Radek Dvorak, 2 years unknown amount, presumed to be too much regardless
I lump all these three together because it shows that Florida once again has continued on with, as I like to call them futility signings. These are multiple signings of players who are mediocre or past their prime to larger deals than they’re worth and expected to have a big impact on their team. I sincerely doubt any of these three will have much to do with the Panthers success.



Los Angeles
Tom Preissing, 4 years $11 million
Preissing had a career year so it’s no surprise his salary skyrocketed. He will provide some valuable two way play on the Kings rather young blue line corps and at an affordable price. If his play with Ottawa turns out to be a fluke though, it is a contract they will not be able to get rid of easily.

Michal Handzus, 4 years $16 million
Handzus is a good second line center who can give strong two way play and put a few goals in. How much he got was a bit surprising, but it is not unrealistic he can live up to it, especially if placed with good wingers. A bit much, but a solid signing for the Kings.

Ladislav Nagy, 1 year $3.75 million
Nagy’s stock plummeted after a terrible year, and his oft injured ways don’t help him any. It is not surprising he signed for only a year, as a one year deal is low risk. Nagy is banking on doing better with a fresh start.

Kyle Calder, 2 years $5.4 million
Calder had a horrid year and Philly was glad to be rid of him. After such a poor year it is surprising he not only got a two year deal, but for as much as he did. It’s a risky signing, but if he returns to his Chicago playing form he will be worth it.

Brad Stuart, 1 year $3.5 million
This is a surprise. Not because the Kings signed him, but because it was a single year at $3.5 million, well below what he should have gone for on the market. Regardless, the Kings get a good two way defender that is often under rated in both ends who will help significantly on their defense.

Minnesota
Eric Belanger, 3 years, $5.25 million
Belangers has always been a good lower line guy: strong in his own zone and capable of scoring some goals. It’s been his health that has kept him from being a true asset over the years. Regardless the deal is pretty reasonable and he should help Minnesota.

Sean hill, 1 year unknown amount
Hill had a strong year for the Islanders until his suspension, which will last 17 more games. With his age (36) and such a long layoff it is anyone’s guess how much he will help the Wild.

Montreal
Roman Hamrlik, 4 years $22 million
$5.5 a year for Hamrlik? I know I complain a lot about overpayment but come on. You don’t pay $5.5 for a second pairing guy. Hamrlik plays a good game, but geez.

Brian Smolinski, 1 year $2 million
Smolinski will help bolster the forward unit of the Candiens who were lacking in secondary scoring last year. At $2 million on an inflated market, this is a pretty good signing, especially for a single year so if need be he can be unloaded.

Nashville
Radek Bonk, 2 years unknown amount
Poile added some lower line depth with the addition of Bonk, despite his inconsistent ways. It is unlikely he will play on the top two lines, but that is good as he never flourished in that role in Ottawa. A depth signing.

Greg DeVries, 2 years unknown amount
DeVries will help off set of the loss of Timonen and help the younger guys like Weber and Hamhuis. He is not of the same caliber as the man he is replacing, but he is steady and reliable.

New Jersey
Dainus Zubrus, 6 years $20.4 million
I’ve never been a fan of Zubrus, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he started scoring when teamed with Ovechkin. This was a desperation move by Lou as Zubrus is worth neither the six years nor the $3.4 million a year it comes out to. He’ll help some, but he cant score without good line mates and I think his defensive and physical games are over rated.

Kevin Weekes, 1 year $1.375 million
A very smart signing by Lou. Weekes will allow the aging (but still very good) Brodeur to take more than ten games off a year. He looked tired in the playoffs, and Weekes, who now has become a quality back up will aid the Devils more than I think most are giving him credit for.

New York Islanders
Ruslan Fedotenko, 1 year $2.9 million
Look, I know the Isles are desperate to get people, but come on. Ruslan is basically a third liner and worth at most half this pay. They could have done much better than this for the money.

Jon Sim, 3 years $3 million
Sim is a good depth signing who has added some scoring under the new rules. He is speedy and gritty so he can be a nuisance to the opposing team. He is cheap so a pretty good signing by the Isles.


Bill Guerin, 2 years $9 million
Rumor is him and Comrie were a package deal because they share the same agent. Despite that the Isles needed scoring and Guerin gave that to the Blues last season. However, a lackluster playoff on a good San Jose team has to make you wonder: can he produce only when he is the main guy counted on to? If so, the Isles could be in luck.

Mike Comrie, 1 year $3.35 million
Comrie joins yet another team in his short career. Once having much promise his attitude and constant trading to another team has made his skills stagnant in their growth. He will be a pretty good second line center for the now gutted Isles, but a first line center he isn’t.

New York Rangers
Chris Drury, 5 years, $35.25
Drury’s clutch status, and adding scoring this year really drove up his value. Once again a playoff monster, he helped lead Buffalo to the conference finals once again. His playoff experience and clutchness is invaluable, and that is why he got over $7 million a year. A bit much, yes, but come playoff time there are few others you want over him.

Scott Gomez, 7 years $51.5 million
The Rangers scooped up two of the best three centers on the market, and Gomez is the youngest. His passing abilities, along with his strong two way play paired with Drury’s will give the Rangers significant defensive contributions from the forward lines. However, Gomez is being paid as a top line center and he is not that. He will never win a scoring title or come close, so add in the length I think the rangers overpaid.

Ottawa
none

Philadelphia
Daniel Briere, 8 years $52 million
Philly continued it’s off season overhaul by landing one of the top forwards in Briere who will add much needed speed and scoring. The contract amount isn’t bad, it’s the length that is surprising as Briere will be 36 by the time it expires, and should they need to offload him for any reason, well, good luck regardless if the contract if front loaded.

Phoenix
none

Pittsburgh
Daryl Sydor, 2 years $5 million
Sydor is on the decline, but he is still effective as his offensive skills are taking the biggest hit, but that’s fine with the Pens because keeping the puck out of the net is proving to be much more difficult. He will add more stability to the Pens blue line, and will help mentor the likes of Ryan Whitney and Kris Letang. A bit surprising of a choice as the Pens needed a stay at home and physical defenseman along the lines of Hannan and Vaananen rather than Sydor.

Petr Sykora, 2 years $5.3 million
The Pens got a much needed winger to play with Crosby or Malkin. While a bit streaky, Sykora has never scored below 20 goals while playing a full season, and paired with a highly skilled center is capable of much more. He’s not the best defensively, but at $2.65 million a year, compared to what other wingers are going for, this is a steal for the Pens.



San Jose
none

St. Louis
Paul Kariya, 3 years $18 million
This was a bit surprising as no one really expected the Blues to be signing such a high profile free agent, and nor did they expect someone to throw so much at Kariya. Regardless, Kariya will add some much needed scoring to the offense deprived Blues. Look for another good year from him.

Tampa Bay
Michel Ouellet, 2 years $2.5 million
Tampa will regret this signing. Ouellet’s points were the result of playing with Malkin and Staal, and on the powerplay unit where he stood on the side (not the front) of the net. His slow speed and lack of agility will drag down Vinny or Richards, whichever he is paired with. It wont take Tampa fans long to get annoyed by him.

Brad Lukowich, 3 years unknown amount
Lukowich returns to the place he won the Stanley Cup in 1994 and the Bolts will be happy to get him back. With a lackluster defense he will definitely be an upgrade and help ease the loss of Cory Sarich.

Toronto
Jason Blake, 5 years $20 million
Blake scored 40 goals and the Leafs paid him like it, though whether he can maintain that, or go back to his 20+ goal ways will be seen. Regardless, the Leafs get some much needed secondary scoring from the wings to alleviate the load from Sundin. The contract is a bit long for a guy who will start the season at 34 though.


Vancouver
Aaron Miller, 1 year unknown amount
Vancouver shored up one fo their weaker areas with the signing of the aging but still useful Miller. The one year deal is no risk and he should provid the canucks with much needed defensive depth.

Washington
Tom Poti, 4 years $14 million
Poti has been overpaid since he was on the Rangers. While he did have a good year he is still not worth this kind of money. He’ll help the Caps move the puck up ice and on the power play, but nowhere else.

Michael Nylander, 4 years $19.5 million
George McPhee continues to show when given money he does not know how to spend it. While Nylander is good, Jagr has also helped to inflate his stats some. I think it is a bit much to pay for him, but if he meshes with Ovechkin it could be well worth it. But giving a 4 year deal to a 34 year old player is a bit dangerous.


Viktor Kozlov, 2 years $5 million
Kozlov had a very good year with 25 goals and will provide the Caps with some needed grit. Whether or not Kozlov can once again score 25 goals remains to be seen though. He is better suited as a 3rd line center, but the Caps will most likely use him as the second, so we will see how he reacts to being put in a higher profile situation.